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While there may be a shift underway in the minds of first home buyers, will the turning of the cycle be as swift going back as it was going back down?

While housing markets move in cycles, there is something very different about this downward leg of the housing cycle. But with the endgame upon us, will house prices stop falling?

I’ve just released the results of my latest survey and the numbers are not much changed from where they were at the end of June. Buyers remain in the shadows and prices are falling all around the country.

In last year’s mortgage rate forecast, we predicted rates would drop below 2.00% and stay low, which they did for most of 2021. Our house price prediction wasn't so on the money, but that one comes down to a matter of timing. Here's our latest analysis.

In this article we’re looking at how to pick the right fixed home loan rate term in a rising interest rate environment.

I love property. Early last year I wrote that I thought we were going into the last great property boom based on ultra-low interest rates and the increasing importance of having a home in the post COVID world.

My own experience of two first home buyers 13 years apart shows that servicing hasn’t changed all that much. It's as hard today as it was 13 years ago. But what it doesn’t show is the sizeable part of our population that are locked out of the housing market altogether.

I recently wrote about the end-game being underway for the three decade period of high average house price rises. I still remain of that view, but for now the market retains considerable strength.

Two week’s ago expectations for interest rate changes in New Zealand took a leap up in response to the June quarter inflation number coming in 0.5% higher than anticipated. This is a very rare event and the signal it has sent is that the pace of growth in our economy is too strong for the Reserve Bank to be confident of containing inflation below 3%.

The world has been printing money for several years, in anticipation of inflation and interest rates eventually rising. Neither of those happened. But the short-term has changed.

Two weeks ago, I wrote on the theme that young buyers will probably hold back from the residential real estate market until they see older investors returning – then they too will return. Evidence for this has already been shown from my surveys.

In this article I’m focusing on the idea of debt-to-income ratios. It is likely that they will be a key tool used by the Reserve Bank to meet its new house price stability objective.